Contingency vs. Hourly: Which Makes Sense for Your Tariff Refund?

The Core Difference

The fee structure you choose determines two things: how much risk you carry during the case, and how much of your recovery you keep at the end.

Real Numbers: A $2 Million Claim

Let's compare what you'd actually pay on a $2 million IEEPA refund claim under each model, assuming a 3-year litigation timeline (which the administration has predicted).

Hourly Billing Scenario

• Initial retainer: $25,000
• Monthly fees (avg): $8,000-$15,000
• 36 months of litigation: $288,000-$540,000
• Total legal fees: $313,000-$565,000

If you win and recover $2M, you keep $1.4-$1.7M after fees. But if the government's appeal succeeds and you recover nothing, you're out $300,000+ with nothing to show for it.

Contingency Scenario

• Initial cost: $0
• Monthly cost: $0
• 36 months of litigation: $0
• Total out-of-pocket: $0

If you win and recover $2M, you keep approximately $1.6M (at a blended 20% fee). If the government's appeal succeeds and you recover nothing, you owe nothing. The firm absorbs the loss.

Why This Matters for IEEPA Cases

IEEPA tariff refund litigation has specific characteristics that make contingency particularly attractive:

1. Extended Timeline

The administration has predicted 2-5 years of appeals. That's 2-5 years of hourly invoices if you go that route. Contingency means no cash outflow during that entire period.

2. Outcome Uncertainty

While the Supreme Court ruled the tariffs unlawful, the refund mechanism is still being litigated. CBP is actively blocking administrative refunds. The government is appealing court orders. A contingency arrangement means you don't bear the risk of this uncertainty.

3. Cash Flow Preservation

Many businesses that paid IEEPA tariffs are already dealing with cash flow pressure from those costs. Adding hundreds of thousands in legal fees compounds the problem. Contingency keeps your capital available for operations.

When Hourly Might Make Sense

Hourly billing isn't always wrong. It might be appropriate if:

• You have a very small claim (under $50,000) that doesn't justify contingency percentages
• You're a large enterprise with predictable legal budgets and a preference for hourly relationships
• Your case has unique complications that make contingency firms unwilling to take it

For most mid-market importers with six- or seven-figure IEEPA exposure, contingency is the straightforward choice.

Our Contingency Structure

Tariff Refund Solutions uses a sliding-scale contingency fee that decreases as your claim size increases:

On a $2 million claim with an estimated mix of administrative and litigated entries, the blended rate works out to roughly 20%, meaning you keep approximately $1.6 million.