In February 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful. American businesses paid billions in duties the government had no legal authority to collect.
That ruling should have meant refunds. It hasn't. There is no refund process. No application to file. No agency standing by to pay you back.
Instead, the government is fighting every step. U.S. Customs and Border Protection is rejecting protests and prior disclosure filings. The Court of International Trade's refund order is being appealed. And President Trump has publicly predicted that this litigation will drag on for two to five years.
If you want your money back, you are going to have to fight for it. And the way you choose to fight, the path you take right now, will determine how much of your money you actually recover.
Every option on the table costs nothing upfront. The difference is what happens to your money at the end.
Option 1
Do Nothing
Net recovery: $0
Some businesses are sitting on the sideline, waiting to see how the litigation plays out. A customs broker quoted in The Wall Street Journal is advising clients to "hope that Customs does the right thing."
That is not a strategy. The government has already stated it believes the Supreme Court was wrong. No refund is coming without a legal fight.
Tariff refund claims are subject to filing deadlines. CBP's administrative protest window is limited, and missing it can permanently bar your claim. The government is not going to come find you and hand you a check, even if it eventually loses on every legal front.
Doing nothing doesn't keep your options open. It closes them. Every week that passes without action is a week closer to a deadline you may not know about.
Option 2
Sell to a Wall Street Claims Trader
Net recovery on a $2M claim: ~$800,000
After the Supreme Court ruling, a cottage industry of claims-purchasing firms emerged almost overnight. These firms, often backed by hedge funds and private equity, offer to buy your tariff refund claim for roughly 40 cents on the dollar. They hand you a check now, and they take ownership of the full recovery later.
On the surface, it sounds appealing: cash today, no waiting around for years of litigation. But let's look at the math. On a $2 million claim, a claims trader pays you around $800,000. When the case eventually settles for the full $2 million, the trader keeps $1.2 million, money that was yours.
You paid the tariffs. You absorbed the cost. You took all the risk. And now you're handing more than half your recovery to a financial intermediary that did none of those things.
Once you sign, there's no getting that money back, regardless of how quickly or favorably the litigation resolves. The trader profits from your impatience. You permanently forfeit more than half your claim.
Option 3
Work with a Contingency Law Firm
Net recovery on a $2M claim: ~$1,600,000 (at a ~20% blended rate)
A contingency firm takes your case with a straightforward deal: if they recover money for you, they take a percentage based on a sliding scale. If they recover nothing, you pay nothing. Zero. That's the whole arrangement.
The sliding scale means you keep up to 92% of your recovery. On a $2 million claim with an estimated mix of administrative and litigated entries, the blended rate works out to roughly 20%, meaning you keep about $1,600,000. That's $800,000 more than you'd walk away with if you sold your claim to a trader.
But the financial math is only part of the story. With contingency, your law firm's incentives are perfectly aligned with yours. They only get paid if you get paid. That means they have every reason to fight for the maximum recovery, push the case forward efficiently, and not let it languish on a docket somewhere.
There's no upfront cost, no hourly invoices hitting your P&L, and no financial risk to you. If the government wins its appeal and nobody recovers anything, you owe nothing. The firm absorbs the loss, not your business. That's why contingency is the smartest way to hedge your bet.
The Hidden Risk of Hourly Billing
There's a fourth path that some businesses are considering: hiring a traditional law firm that bills by the hour. On paper, it looks straightforward, you hire experienced trade lawyers, they file the paperwork, and you pay their invoices as they go.
In practice, this is where businesses can get hurt the most.
The hourly billing trap
International trade attorneys at major firms bill between $1,000 and $1,500 per hour. IEEPA tariff recovery involves complex federal filings with CBP, potential proceedings at the Court of International Trade, and now a government appeal that could last years. Legal fees on an hourly basis can easily reach $200,000 to $500,000 or more, and that bill comes due whether you win or lose.
Think about what that means in concrete terms. You hire a well-credentialed trade firm at $1,200 an hour. The case drags on for two years. Your monthly invoices stack up. Then the government's appeal succeeds, even partially, and the recovery you were counting on shrinks or disappears entirely.
You're not just out the tariffs you originally paid. You're out the hundreds of thousands in legal fees on top of it. You paid to fight and lost. That's the downside risk of hourly billing, and it's a risk that falls entirely on you, the client.
A contingency firm eliminates this risk. Completely. If the case doesn't result in a recovery, the firm absorbs the cost, not your business. No invoices. No write-offs. No explaining to your board why you spent $400,000 on a case that went sideways.
This is why contingency is how smart businesses hedge their bet. You get top-tier legal representation. Your firm's success is tied directly to yours. And if things don't go your way, you don't lose a dime beyond what the government already took from you.
Side-by-Side: Four Paths on a $2 Million Claim
| Option | Net Recovery | Upfront Cost | Risk if You Lose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Do Nothing | $0 | $0 | You forfeit your entire claim |
| Claims Trader (40¢) | $800,000 | $0 | None, but you permanently sell your claim at a steep discount |
| Hourly Billing Firm | $0 – $1.6M | $1,000–$1,500/hr | You pay legal fees whether you win or lose. Could spend hundreds of thousands and recover nothing. |
| Contingency Firm | ~$1,600,000 | $0 | None, you pay nothing unless you win |
Three of these options cost nothing upfront. But only one of them protects you if the case goes the wrong way and maximizes your recovery if it goes right. That's contingency.
Deadlines Are Running. The Time to Act Is Now.
CBP is actively blocking the administrative pathways businesses would normally use to recover overpaid duties. Protest deadlines are passing. Prior disclosure filings are being rejected. And the government is using every procedural tool at its disposal to delay and deny refunds.
The businesses that take action now, filing protests, preserving their claims, and engaging experienced counsel, will be in the strongest position when this litigation resolves. Those that wait risk losing their claims entirely, not because they don't have a case, but because they ran out the clock.
Early action protects your claim. Waiting costs you options.